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Forecasting the Volume of Investment in Fixed Capital in the Republic of Uzbekistan Using Trend Models
Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of fixed capital investment in the Republic of Uzbekistan and develops medium-term forecasts using advanced trend-based econometric approaches. The research examines long-term structural changes, cyclical fluctuations, and growth trajectories in investment volumes based on official macroeconomic time-series data. To ensure methodological rigor, linear, exponential, and polynomial trend models are constructed and comparatively evaluated in terms of goodness-of-fit, statistical significance, and forecasting accuracy. The modeling process incorporates diagnostic testing, residual analysis, and error measurement indicators to enhance reliability and robustness. The findings reveal stable upward tendencies accompanied by periodic volatility driven by structural reforms and external economic factors. Forecast results indicate sustained growth under baseline assumptions, highlighting the strategic importance of investment expansion for industrial modernization and infrastructure development. The study contributes to empirical literature by providing a data-driven framework for investment forecasting and offers practical implications for evidence-based investment policy design, macroeconomic planning, and long-term sustainable economic development.
Keywords
Investments in Fixed Capital
Investment Activity
Trend Models
Forecasting
ARIMA Model
Economic Growth
Time Series
Macroeconomic Analysis
References
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Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Innovations in IT
by
Anhalt University of Applied Sciences
is licensed under
CC BY-SA 4.0
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This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
All works are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0), unless otherwise noted.
Published by ICAIIT in cooperation with Anhalt University of Applied Sciences.