This article examines the assessment of environmental risks and impacts associated with large-scale infrastructure projects in Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan) using advanced multicriteria decision-making methods, including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and expert evaluation techniques. The study analyzes the relative importance of key environmental and socio-ecological criteria-such as water pollution, biodiversity loss, air contamination, and social impacts-in order to identify the most vulnerable factors affecting regional environmental sustainability. Based on the derived weighting system, alternative project implementation scenarios were ranked to determine the most environmentally sustainable and risk-minimized development options. The results demonstrate that minimizing impacts on water resources and biodiversity significantly enhances ecological resilience and reduces long-term environmental risks. The analysis also identifies key limitations, including incomplete regional datasets and the inherent subjectivity of expert judgments. Future research directions include the automation of environmental assessment processes through Big Data analytics and climate scenario modeling. The findings confirm the relevance and effectiveness of multicriteria environmental risk assessment models for the evaluation and management of large-scale infrastructure projects in Central Asia. The proposed scenarios and rankings not only identify critical vulnerabilities but also provide actionable recommendations for risk mitigation, thereby contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), natural resource conservation, and improvements in quality of life. Further methodological development, database expansion, and the implementation of automated decision-support systems are expected to enhance the precision and efficiency of environmental management, supporting balanced regional development under climate change and global ecological pressures. The results have practical significance for governmental agencies, private sector actors, investors, and project developers, facilitating more evidence-based decision-making and sustainable investment strategies.
World Bank, Environmental and Social Framework for Infrastructure Projects. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications, 2018.
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Regional Environmental Assessment of Central Asia. UNEP Reports, 2020.
T. L. Saaty, “The Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Management Science, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 618-629, 1980.
C.-L. Hwang and K. Yoon, Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications. Springer-Verlag, 1981.
ISO 14001:2015. Environmental Management Systems - Requirements with Guidance for Use. International Organization for Standardization, 2015.
G. Nigmatullaeva, F. Ibragimova, N. Dekhkanova, A. Umarov, and A. Sadikov, “Renewable Energy, Private Sector Development, and CO₂ Emissions: Evidence from Early Demographic Dividend Countries,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 705-713, 2025, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.19725.
OECD, Sustainable Infrastructure for Low-Carbon Development in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Assessing the Current Situation and Needs. Paris, France: OECD Publishing, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://www.oecd.org/ru/publications/edba62eb-ru.html.
N. F. Zikrillaev, E. B. Saitov, O. Begmullaev, N. E. Uulu, and G. Abdukarimova, “Innovation-Driven Analysis of Social Project Mechanisms for Renewable Energy Transition,” Proceedings of International Conference on Applied Innovation in IT, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 377-391, 2025.
D. Azimova, F. Shamsieva, E. Saitov, and M. Tosheva, “Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Globalization in Selected Countries,” in Human Capital, Energy and Sustainable Development, pp. 17-30, 2025.
E. B. Saitov, Y. B. Sobirov, I. A. Yuldoshev, I. R. Jurayev, and Sh. Kodirov, “Solar Radiation and Wind Characteristics in Uzbekistan,” E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 220, Art. no. 01061, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022001061.
I. Sapaev, E. Saitov, N. Zoxidov, and B. Kamanov, “Matlab-Model of a Solar Photovoltaic Station Integrated with a Local Electrical Network,” IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, vol. 883, Art. no. 012116, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/883/1/012116.
UNECE, Assessment of Environmental Priorities in Central Asia. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2026, [Online]. Available: https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/Assess.%20Priorities%20in%20Central%20Asia_RUS_19Apr2026.pdf.
M. Laldjebaev, R. Isaev, and A. Saukhimov, “Renewable energy in Central Asia: An overview of potentials, deployment, outlook, and barriers,” Energy Reports, vol. 7, pp. 3125-3136, Nov. 2021, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.05.014.
CAREC ECO, Progress and Prospects, [Online]. Available: https://carececo.org/en/markup2/CentralAsia_BatumiProcess_CAREC_Rus.pdf.
F. Nosirov, O. Glovatsky, B. Khamdamov, and A. Gazaryan, “Increasing the Stability of the Supply Hydraulic Structures,” AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 3152, Art. no. 040010, 2024.
B. Urishev, F. Nosirov, and N. Ruzikulova, “Hydraulic Energy Storage of Wind Power Plants,” E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 383, Art. no. 04052, 2023.
O. Begmullaev, S. Nabieva, and S. Mirsaidova, “Classification of Energy Efficiency Policies and Their Implementation,” AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 3331, Art. no. 030053, 2025.
O. Akhmedov and O. Begmullaev, “Alternative Energy and Its Place in Ensuring the Energy Balance of the Republic of Uzbekistan,” AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 2552, Art. no. 050030, 2023.