Proceedings of International Conference on Applied Innovation in IT
2025/12/22, Volume 13, Issue 5, pp.1289-1295

Electricity Consumption Forecasting Using Facebook Prophet


Mohammed Abdel Hamid Musa Al-Shamoosy and Suhad Ali Shaheed


Abstract: This research seeks for predicting electricity consumption in Baghdad Governorate using the Facebook Prophet Model, which was Proposed by Taylor and Latham in 2017 as a modern generalized additive Model specialized in tuning and forecasting time series data. This model includes non-linear functions that are combined into one model. The most important feature of this model is that it supports the presence of change points in the general trend, and uses the Fourier series to model seasonality, In addition, the model contains a function to represent the effect of special events (Holidays) in the time series. The electricity consumption data were analyzed and their estimated values were extracted according to the Facebook Prophet model using the Limited Memory Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, and Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm. After that, the estimated values were compared with the original values to measure the accuracy of the model`s performance. The results showed that the model provided relatively accurate prediction performance, which reflects the model`s ability to predict electricity consumption, and the possibility of using it as a tool to support energy demand management.

Keywords: Prediction, Electricity Consumption, Facebook Prophet, L-BFGS Algorithms.

DOI: Under indexing

Download: PDF

References:

  1. S. J. Taylor and B. Letham, “Forecasting at scale,” PeerJ Preprints, Sep. 27, 2017, doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.3190v2.
  2. A.-J. Mäkipää, “Forecasting emergency department arrivals with Facebook Prophet library,” Electrical Engineering, 2021.
  3. A. Hasnain, M. Z. Hashmi, B. Nadeem, M. M. Nizamani, and S. U. Bazai, “Ambient PM2.5 prediction based on Prophet forecasting model in Anhui Province, China,” in Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Technology and Applications, vol. 614, S. Anwar, A. Ullah, Á. Rocha, and M. J. Sousa, Eds., Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 614, Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023, pp. 27–34, doi: 10.1007/978-981-19-9331-2_3.
  4. Z. Luo et al., “A combined model of SARIMA and Prophet models in forecasting AIDS incidence in Henan Province, China,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 19, no. 10, p. 5910, May 2022, doi: 10.3390/ijerph19105910.
  5. S. F. Stefenon, L. O. Seman, V. C. Mariani, and L. D. S. Coelho, “Aggregating Prophet and seasonal trend decomposition for time series forecasting of Italian electricity spot prices,” Energies, vol. 16, no. 3, p. 1371, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.3390/en16031371.
  6. P. Ma et al., “Multiscale superpixelwise Prophet model for noise-robust feature extraction in hyperspectral images,” IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 61, pp. 1–12, 2023, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2023.3260634.
  7. J. Nocedal and S. J. Wright, Numerical Optimization, 2nd ed., New York, NY: Springer, 2006.
  8. T. Wästerlid, “Application of L-BFGS to a large-scale Poisson MAP estimation,” 2012.
  9. D. R. S. Saputro and P. Widyaningsih, “Limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) method for the parameter estimation on geographically weighted ordinal logistic regression model (GWOLR),” in AIP Conference Proceedings, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2017, doi: 10.1063/1.4995124.
  10. X. Lu et al., “Improved reconstruction algorithm of wireless sensor network based on BFGS quasi-Newton method,” Electronics, vol. 12, no. 6, p. 1267, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.3390/electronics12061267.


    HOME

       - Conference
       - Journal
       - Paper Submission to Conference
       - Paper Submission to Journal
       - Fee Payment
       - For Authors
       - For Reviewers
       - Important Dates
       - Conference Committee
       - Editorial Board
       - Reviewers
       - Last Proceeding


    PROCEEDINGS

       - Volume 13, Issue 5 (ICAIIT 2025)
       - Volume 13, Issue 4 (ICAIIT 2025)
       - Volume 13, Issue 3 (ICAIIT 2025)
       - Volume 13, Issue 2 (ICAIIT 2025)
       - Volume 13, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2025)
       - Volume 12, Issue 2 (ICAIIT 2024)
       - Volume 12, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2024)
       - Volume 11, Issue 2 (ICAIIT 2023)
       - Volume 11, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2023)
       - Volume 10, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2022)
       - Volume 9, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2021)
       - Volume 8, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2020)
       - Volume 7, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2019)
       - Volume 7, Issue 2 (ICAIIT 2019)
       - Volume 6, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2018)
       - Volume 5, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2017)
       - Volume 4, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2016)
       - Volume 3, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2015)
       - Volume 2, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2014)
       - Volume 1, Issue 1 (ICAIIT 2013)


    LAST CONFERENCE

       ICAIIT 2026
         - Photos
         - Reports

    PAST CONFERENCES

    ETHICS IN PUBLICATIONS

    ACCOMODATION

    CONTACT US

 

        

         Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Innovations in IT by Anhalt University of Applied Sciences is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0


                                                   This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License


           ISSN 2199-8876
           Publisher: Edition Hochschule Anhalt
           Location: Anhalt University of Applied Sciences
           Email: leiterin.hsb@hs-anhalt.de
           Phone: +49 (0) 3496 67 5611
           Address: Building 01 - Red Building, Top floor, Room 425, Bernburger Str. 55, D-06366 Köthen, Germany

        site traffic counter

Creative Commons License
Except where otherwise noted, all works and proceedings on this site is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.