This paper proposes a practical and transparent framework for determining recommended vehicle speeds under varying pavement and environmental conditions. The method links a road-condition classification (dry-smooth, dry-rough, wet, icy) to an explicit engineering decision rule based on two safety constraints: (i) a stopping-distance requirement and (ii) a curve-stability requirement for representative horizontal-curve scenarios. When continuous field measurements are unavailable, friction coefficients are adopted as typical literature- and standards-based ranges for scenario calculations, while the resulting speeds are interpreted as indicative values subject to local calibration. To quantify uncertainty caused by variability in tire-road friction and driver reaction time, a Monte Carlo simulation is implemented with uniform sampling of friction within class ranges and reaction time within 0.8-1.2 s (Nsim = 10,000). The output is reported as the median recommended speed and the 95% uncertainty interval [P2.5, P97.5] for each pavement class, enabling conservative engineering margins. Under the studied assumptions (Vlimit = 110 km/h, D = 80 m, ksafety = 0.90), the median recommended speed decreases from 92.0 km/h for a representative dry-curve case to 71.2 km/h for wet straight segments and 45.2 km/h for an icy curve. The proposed approach supports condition-responsive speed management and can serve as a computational core for future ITS deployment after calibration using local friction and surface-condition measurements.
Republic of Uzbekistan, Law No. ZRU-900 “On Road Traffic,” Jan. 19, 2024 (effective from Jul. 21, 2024), [Online]. Available: https://lex.uz/ru/docs/6764456.
Traffic Regulations of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Tashkent, Uzbekistan: Ministry of Justice, 2022. (in Uzbek).
World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO, 2023, [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/teams/social-determinants-of-health/safety-and-mobility/global-status-report-on-road-safety-2023.
Transportation Research Board, Managing Speed: Review of Current Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits, Special Report 254. Washington, DC, USA: National Academy Press, 1998, [Online]. Available: https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/sr254.pdf.
J. Bagdade, D. Nabors, H. McGee, R. Miller, and R. Retting, Speed Management: A Manual for Local Rural Road Owners, FHWA-SA-12-027. Washington, DC, USA: Federal Highway Administration, Nov. 2012, [Online]. Available: https://highways.dot.gov/sites/fhwa.dot.gov/files/2022-06/speedmanagementguide.pdf.
W. Kumfer, L. Martin, S. Turner, and L. Broshears, Safe System Approach for Speed Management, FHWA-SA-23-002. Washington, DC, USA: Federal Highway Administration, May 2023, [Online]. Available: https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/82277/dot_82277_DS1.pdf.
K. Fitzpatrick, P. Carlson, M. A. Brewer, M. D. Wooldridge, and S.-P. Miaou, Design Speed, Operating Speed, and Posted Speed Practices, NCHRP Report 504. Washington, DC, USA: Transportation Research Board, 2003, [Online]. Available: https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_504.pdf.
C. Lee, B. Hellinga, and F. Saccomanno, “Evaluation of variable speed limits to improve traffic safety,” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 213-228, Jun. 2006, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2006.06.002.
R. G. N. Yasanthi, B. Mehran, and W. K. M. Alhajyaseen, “A reliability-based weather-responsive variable speed limit system to improve the safety of rural highways,” Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 177, art. 106831, Nov. 2022, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2022.106831.
J. Jin, Y. Li, H. Huang, Y. Dong, and P. Liu, “A variable speed limit control approach for freeway tunnels based on the model-based reinforcement learning framework with safety perception,” Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 201, art. 107570, Jun. 2024, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107570.
W. Lu, Z. Yi, Y. Gu, Y. Rui, and B. Ran, “TD3LVSL: A lane-level variable speed limit approach based on twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient in a connected automated vehicle environment,” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, vol. 153, art. 104221, Aug. 2023, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2023.104221.
AASHTO, Highway Safety Manual, 2nd ed. Washington, DC, USA: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 2020.
AASHTO, A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets (“Green Book”), 7th ed. Washington, DC, USA: AASHTO, 2018.
M. Cloutier and L. Donaldson, Applicability of Winter Friction Measurements in Ontario: 2006-2007 Winter Maintenance Technology Program. Ontario, Canada: Ministry of Transportation, Ontario, Jun. 2007, [Online]. Available: https://fudinfo.trafikverket.se/fudinfoexternwebb/Publikationer/Publikationer_001401_001500/Publikation_001473/Winter%20Friction%20Applicability%20Study.pdf.
L. Fu, L. Thakali, T. Kwon, T. Usman, M. S. Perchanok, and H. McClintock, “Winter Road Condition Classification and Reporting - A Risk Based Approach,” in Proc. PIARC Int. Winter Road Congr., Andorra, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://proceedings-andorra2014.piarc.org/content/actes/121_eng.pdf.
T. D. Gillespie, Fundamentals of Vehicle Dynamics. Warrendale, PA, USA: SAE International, 1992.
M. M. Talipov, “Computational Modeling and Analysis of Mechanical Power Consumption in Train Assemblers’ Work,” Proc. Int. Conf. on Applied Innovation in IT, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 419-426, 2025, [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.25673/120513.
World Bank, Global Road Safety Facility, Guide for Safe Speeds: Managing Traffic Speeds to Save Lives and Improve Livability. Washington, DC, USA: World Bank, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.globalroadsafetyfacility.org/sites/default/files/2024-10/Guide%20for%20Safe%20Speeds%20-%20Managing%20Traffic%20Speeds%20to%20Save%20Lives%20v9.pdf.
Sh. A. Ismoilov, Basics of Transport Logistics. Tashkent, Uzbekistan: Transport Publishing, 2021. (in Uzbek).
S. K. Qodirov, Roads and Traffic Safety. Tashkent, Uzbekistan: Transport, 2020. (in Uzbek).